By Chris Kavan - 11/10/19 at 08:13 PM CT
It was an interesting weekend all around as Midway exceeded expectations to top the box office while, on the opposite side of things, Doctor Sleep came well under expectations and had to settle for second. In the other battle of newcomers, Playing with Fire topped Last Christmas. Terminator: Dark Fate cratered in its second weekend following a disappointing opening, while Joker continued to show strength as it can now claim to be the most profitable comic book movie of all time. This late fall continues to be a bit disappointing for new releases, but I think some big changes are on the horizon.
1) MIDWAY
Coming in on top, and over-performing in the process, Roland Emmerich's Midway claimed victory with $17.5 million. The film also earned an "A" Cinemascore from audiences, which was made up of 60% male with 87% coming in age 25 or older. With Veteran's Day on Monday, this should have no problem topping $20 million by the end of the day. Best case scenario for Midway looks to be similar to Hacksaw Ridge, which opened to $15.19 million and went on to gross $67.2 million in the end. It's not a direct comparison as Hacksaw Ridge had some awards-season buzz going for it - along with Mel Gibson (for better or worse). Midway's reported $70-$100 million price tag isn't going to win based on domestic performance alone. As long as it can hit around $50 million or so, I think its international total should make up enough to make it profitable. The news isn't so much that Midway came out on top, but that its closest competitor, Doctor Sleep, did so poorly. But kudos to this ensemble war film, we'll see how long it can keep going.
2)
DOCTOR SLEEP
Going into the weekend, expectations pegged Doctor Sleep to hit anywhere from $25-$30 million, but despite some excellent reviews and the nostalgia factor, perhaps general audiences just weren't that excited about a Shining (book or movie) sequel. With $14.2 million, Doctor Sleep came in well under expectations. Perhaps it could have taken advantage of the Halloween season had it been released a bit earlier, but, as it stands, it earned much less than recent Stephen King adaptations like It or even Dark Tower ($19.1 million) as well as coming in under horror films like Don't Breathe ($26.4 million) and Lights Out ($21.6 million). It did earn a "B+" Cinemascore - which is high for a horror film - from an audience that was 57% male with 74% coming in age 25 or older - which lines up with the same audience Midway brought in, which is only part of the problem. The other is that, despite King's recent resurgence, The Shining just may not be the crowd-pleasing nostalgia trip the studio was hoping for. I, for one, am still looking forward to watching it in theaters, but the long running time and more cerebral story (rather than cheap scares) probably hurt it among the standard crowd. We'll see how it does internationally (it currently stands at $20 million) , though it does have a light $45 million budget, so even if it falters a bit domestically, it will only need a little help to earn money in the long run.
3)
PLAYING WITH FIRE
The other mild upset for the weekend was the fact that this fire-fighting comedy, with John Cena, Keegan-Michael Key and John Leguizamo meeting their match against the likes of Brianna Hildebrand, Christian Convery and Finley Rose Slater, topped Last Christmas in third place with $12.8 million. That opening isn't exactly on fire, but smoldered enough to to pre-weekend estimates which pegged it in the $10 million range. The film also earned a "B+" Cinemascore from an audience that was 51% male and 61% comprised of families (no surprise there). If this one can continue to bring in said families, a total in the $35-$40 million range is likely and frankly a pretty good result for this ensemble comedy. I wasn't expecting much out of this, but feel-good comedies always have a way of exceeding expectations and Cena has proven himself to be a great team player. We'll see how high this gets, but it's off to a great start.
4)
LAST CHRISTMAS
For every winner, there must also be a loser and thus Last Christmas was the victim of Playing with Fire's win. While the $11.6 million was within the studio's estimate, I'm sure Paul Feig was hoping for both better reviews and a more receptive audience - alas, a "B-" Cinemascore is not great for a rom-com hoping to capitalize on the holiday season. That audience was 65% female and also 65% over 25. Many thought the trailers gave away too much of the film's surprise elements (as modern trailers are too often wont to do) while Netflix also offers up a variety of holiday comfort rom-coms for home viewing pleasure. All that adds up to people maybe just not wanting to give Emilia Clarke, Michelle Yeoh, Henry Golding and Emma Thompson the chance they deserve to shine - or at least make you smile. I don't think this is going to let it out enough to take advantage of the upcoming holidays, but we'll see if it can at least stick around through the end of the month.
5)
TERMINATOR: DARK FATE
Last week's reluctant number 1 took a pretty stiff 63% hit, rounding out the top five with $10.8 million and a new $48.45 million total. To put that in perspective, that is about as much money as Rise of the Machines made in five days and what Terminator: Salvation brought in during its Memorial Day opening as well. It's not good - Dark Fate will be lucky to hit $65 million domestic. Overseas, it's doing better with $150.9 million - just under $200 million worldwide - including a chart-topping $6 million opening out of Japan. I don't think it's going to be enough to justify its cost - or, most likely, any new entries into this franchise.
Outside the top five: Joker fell just outside the top five with $9.2 million and a new $313.5 million total. It will pass Thor: Ragnarok ($315 million) in a day or so and that $325 million milestone is right around the corner and, with $671.2 international, it now stands less than $15 million away from $1 billion global. When it eventually surpassed The Dark Knight ($1.004 billion) it will take the title of biggest movie worldwide to never open in China.
In limited release, Shia LaBeouf's autobiographical drama opened in four theaters with $288,825 for an excellent $72,206 per-theater average though it earned a worrying $105,920 of that on Friday alone. Still, this might not ever be a huge, mainstream hit, but it should do fine on the indie circuit.
Next week brings us the reboot of Charlie's Angels, an awards season hopeful in Ford v Ferrari and a scheming geriatric in The Good Liar.
Comments
