By Chris Kavan - 10/18/15 at 08:38 PM CT
The Crowded weekend proved my point that there is only so much room for winners and the remainder have to hope to pick up the crumbs. Too bad it was Guillermo del Toro who came up the loser over the weekend. Meanwhile, the holdovers really continued to impress things continue to look good for Steve Jobs on the heels of its wind expansion. It's going to get even more crowded next weekend- as if we didn't have enough new movies this weekend already - so we'll see how the box office continues to play out in the face of mounting competition.
1) GOOSEBUMPS
I figured with being this close to Halloween, there was a good chance a horror movie was going to eventually top the box office. I have to admit, I wasn't expecting Goosebumps to be that movie. Thanks to the PG rating, Goosebumps benefited from the family crowd and opened to a great $23.5 million debut. That is nearly half of its $58 million budget. It's more impressive when you consider how well Hotel Transylvania 2 continues to hold up. Jack Black is still a hit with this crowd, as Goosebumps scored an "A" Cinemascore. That should translate to a good run through Halloween at least - it will easily top its budget and could translate to a potential franchise (even if the film used the most popular monsters already). We'll see how it plays out, but a total around $75 million is likely. It helps Sony continue to close out the year on a high note after a mostly disappointing 2015.
2)
THE MARTIAN
After two weeks atop the box office, The Martian finally had to settle for second place - and not by too much. Matt Damon's red planet survival drama dipped about 42% and brought in $21.5 million. That gives The Martian a new total of $143.8 million - and it will cross $150 million by next weekend. It is looking more and more likely that The Martian will be able to top both Hannibal ($165 million) and Gladiator ($187.7 million) to become Ridley Scott's highest-grossing film. It could also mean its popularity with audiences could very well lead to some (well-deserved, in my opinion) awards nominations. We'll have to wait and see, but the film could very easily top $200 million by the time it ends its run, even as competition heats up.
3)
BRIDGE OF SPIES
Steven Spielberg's Cold War drama, Bridge of Spies, had a decent opening with its third-place $15.4 million debut. In terms of Speilberg's more dramatic efforts, it's actually the third-best opening, behind Lincoln ($21 million) and Saving Private Ryan ($30 million). It was also just behind Tom Hank's Captain Philips ($25 million). Even if the film fell a bit short of expectations, it did earn an "A" Cinemascore and since adult audiences are more likely to support a movie over time, Bridge of Spies should enjoy a fine run and ultimately top its $40 million budget winding up around the $65 million mark most likely. We'll see if the response warrants an awards-season run, but you can never discount Spielberg (War Horse, anyone?). It's going to face its biggest competition against the upcoming expansion of Steve Jobs so we'll see how its second weekend winds up.
4)
CRIMSON PEAK
With Goosebumps scoring with families and The Martian and Bridge of Spies driving adults, it just didn't leave much for the latest from Guillermo del Toro. Despite a great cast - Jessica Chastain, Tom Hiddleston and Mia Wasikowska - Crimson Peak could only scare up a meager $12.85 million. By comparision, Woman in Black 2: Angel of Death, featuring a pretty no-name cast, scored $15 million when it opened way back in January. The "B-" Cinemascore doesn't bode well for its long-term prospects, neither does the direct competition from the likes of The Last Witch Hunter and the latest Paranormal Activity film. The $55 million budget is going to be pretty hard to top - even with international grosses taken into account. I was really thinking this Gothic horror had a chance to score (especially this close to Halloween) but obviously something about it didn't click with audiences. A total around $25 million is the best it can hope for at this point.
5)
HOTEL TRANSYLVANIA 2
The leggy animated sequel continued to show surprising staying power (and may have bit into the total for Goosebumps a bit). Hotel Transylvania 2 dropped another light 40% in its fourth weekend, taking in another $12.25 million for a new total of $136.4 million. It still looks to be on track to pass Big Daddy's $163 million total to become the biggest domestic hit for Adam Sandler. I expect this to also capitalize on the upcoming Halloween holiday, and thus a total around $175 million is still looking likely at this point.
Outside the top five: The week's other semi-wide release, the feel-good, faith-based Woodlawn opened in 9th place with $4.1 million. The film earned an "A+" from its built-in audience and thus it should enjoy a short but profitable run. This looks to follow pretty much the same pattern as Mom's Night Out (also from the same directors) and a total around $10 million is likely.
In milestone news Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials managed to cross the $75 million mark taking in $2.75 million (10th place) for a new total of $75.4 million.
The Steve Jobs expansion (from 4 to 60 screens) resulted in a 197.2% increase and a jump from 16th to 11th place and a $1.55 million weekend. That gives the film a new total of $2.26 million going into its wide release debut (which should be pretty good). This should be a major awards contender, we'll see how general audiences react.
Pan, which was lucky to open in 3rd place, had a second-week drop of nearly 62% and fell to sixth place with just $5.86 million and a new total of $25.7 million. This one is going to hurt for a long time.
Next weekend is huge again - beside the wide screen expansion of Steve Jobs, we have horror action film The Last Witch Hunter, pure horror film Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension, unintentional horror film Jem and the Holograms and not-at-all-horror film but comedy about Bill Murray finding Afghans who sing well, Rock the Kasbah. Woo boy - it's going to be a big update but I have a feeling Steve Jobs is going to be the movie to beat.
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