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The Award Season Train Keeps Rolling - How the Oscars Are Shaping Up

View Chris Kavan's Profile

By Chris Kavan - 02/12/13 at 08:13 PM CT

We're coming down the home stretch now. After the Golden Globes, we've seen SAGs, DGAs, PGAs and, most recently, the BAFTAs (the British equivalent of the Academy Awards). So what have we learned over the past month? There are clear winners and losers and, I will admit, my early predictions (at least some of them) have been thrown clear out the window. But here's what I know for sure:

Argo Cleans House

Note to Hollywood - never snub Ben Affleck ever again. When the Best Director nominations were announced, many (including myself, I admit) were surprised that some heavy hitters were overlooked - Katheryn Bigelow for Zero Dark Thirty, Tom Hooper for Les Miserables and Ben Affleck for Argo were all left out. But it has been Affleck who has had the last laugh. After being awarded Best Director at the 2013 Golden Globes, he had been a winner at every major awards presentation since: 2013 PGA Awards - check, 2013 SAG award for Best Ensemble - check, 2013 DGA for Outstanding Directorial Achievement in a Feature Film - check, 2013 BAFTA for best (non-British) film and director - check and check. I guess if you want to send a message that some people are out of touch with reality - sweeping every other major award is a good way to get back. I have a strong feeling that Argo is by and far the front-runner for best picture at this time. Which means...

Lincoln has Faded Fast

With Argo claiming so many titles, there has to be a loser and it's Steven Spielberg's biopic that is being left in the dust. While I still think Spielberg has a chance to get director, I think its chances at earning Best Picture are falling by the wayside. In fact, the only award I am confidant it has a lock on is Daniel Day-Lewis for Best Leading Actor. I would say that Oscar is as close to a sure thing as you're going to find this year.

Speaking of Sure Things...

Aside from Day-Lewis, the other award that has pretty much been set since nominations were announced is Anne Hatheway for Best Supporting Actress. In fact, if she doesn't win the Oscar, I will not only eat my hat, but the shirt off my back.

Who Wants to See Jennifer Lawrence and Jessica Chastain Throwdown?

Tell me that wouldn't be the best Pay-Per-View event, like ever! In a year when we have both the oldest and youngest Best Actress nominees in history, the likely choices will be between Lawrence (who knocked it out of the park in The Silver Linings Playbook) and Chastain (who did likewise in Zero Dark Thirty). While I think Lawrence currently has the edge (and with Silver Linings shining at the box office, while Zero Dark Thirty has faded) - I can't count out Chastain. Who knows? A split vote could open the floor for a surprise win... but I don't think that likely. One of these two actresses are going home with the little bald, gold man.

Ralph Should Wreck-It

Although Brave seemed to have the initial steam after its Golden Globes win, following the 2013 Annie Awards things seem to have swung back to Wreck-It Ralph's favor after it took home the major prizes (including for best picture and director). This makes me happy, as I still think Ralph is some of the most fun I've had at the movies all year. Not just fun - but equally impressed. Also, for those who prefer short subjects - I'm going out on a limb (not really - this is a pretty sure thing) and saying that Paperman is going to take home the statue.

With less than two weeks to go, it may not quite be possible to predict the outcome of the 2013 Oscars, but one thing is for certain - things are taking shape. I hope for at least a few surprises - but regardless of the outcome, for once I think the nominees are very deserved this year. I've seen nearly every film (Life of Pi and Amour are still on my must-watch list) I've wanted and am looking forward to seeing who comes out on top. And hopefully Seth MacFarlane brings some levity to the usually staid event.

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