By Chris Kavan - 02/16/20 at 08:33 PM CT
It was no race to the top this time around as Sonic the Hedgehog had no problem leaving the competition in its dust. And it did so in record fashion, topping Detective Pikachu to become the biggest opening for a video game adaptation to date. Fantasy Island, despite earning bad review and an equally tepid audience reaction, was still top among newcomers, beating out The Photograph while Will Ferrell's Force Majeure remake Downhill barely cracked the top 10. Both 1917 and Parasite got some post-Oscar love while Birds of Prey took a tumble and Bad Boys for Life continued to impress.
1) SONIC THE HEDGEHOG
After some hand-wringing and delays based on the original (and lets face it, kinda creepy) design of Sonic, Paramount turned out to make the right decision as their Sonic adaptation hit the ground running with a fantastic $57 million debut, topping Detective Pikachu ($54.3 million) as the biggest opening for a video game adaptation to date. It was also well ahead of the studio's $40 million expectations. It was a big hit with audiences as well, earning an "A" Cinemascore from the 56% male, 70% under 25 crowd. It's expected to hit $68 million including Monday's President's Day holiday (with some even saying it could hit $70 million), which would make it the fourth-biggest President's Day release of all time. And I think that delay turned out to be a blessing in disguise - as instead of opening up against Frozen II, it opened up against Dolittle (and Jumanji: The Next Level - which just refuses to back down), so, competition-wise, it was a much better release date. Even on the low end, Sonic is looking at a domestic total in the $155-$160 million range, but with a chance to top $200 million in the long run. Either way, it's still looking at becoming the highest-grossing domestic video game adaptation of all time. Overseas, it took in $43 million - and it is the first of the next few months releases that has been affected by China's theater shut-down due to the coronavirus - and it won't be the last or the biggest film hit (No Time to Die and Mulan especially look to bear the brunt of the lack of a China box office boost). Sonic is going to continue to race through the record books as it only has Call of the Wild (which shouldn't be too much of a factor) this month and the big competition, Pixar's Onward, won't drop until March.
2)
HALREY QUINN: BIRDS OF PREY
After a disappointing opening, Birds of Prey took a 48% hit to land in second place with $17.1 million (with $19.6 million expected by Monday) for a new total of $61.7 million. That 48% drop is a decent hold for a comic book film - but the low opening means that hold is not exactly a game changer. It is playing very much like John Wick: Chapter 2 (which dipped 46% after a $30.4 million opening) - which went on to earn $92 million. The bad news about that is if Birds of Prey follows the same line, it will wind up with less than $100 million domestic, a poor showing for any blockbuster comic book film. With $23 million overseas (also a 46% drop), the film now has $143 million worldwide and is looking at about $220 million or so overseas - which would put it behind the likes of Men In Black: International, Terminator: Dark Fate and Dark Phoenix - all of which are considered poor showings in their respective franchises, something Birds of Prey certainly fits within the DCEU.
3)
BLUMHOUSE'S FANTASY ISLAND
In a shocking twist, horror trumped romance over Valentine's Day as Blumhouse's Fantasy Island just managed to edge out The Photograph for third place with $12.4 million. It did so despite getting critcally savaged (9% on Rotten Tomatoes) and playing equally weak with audiences (a "C-" Cinemascore - typical for horror, however). Said audience was 52% female with 46% coming in 25 or older. It is expected to hit about $14 million including Monday. The horror-twisted take on the classic Fantasy Island has a decent cast, including Michael Peña, Lucy Hale, Maggie Q, Portia Doubleday, Ryan Hansen, Jimmy O. Yang and Michael Rooker, but the plot and false endings sound like it turned off its intended audience - not that it hurt other horror films in the past. This $9 million production now looks like one of the more successful horror offerings of the year, even if it's likely to stall out in the $25 - $30 million range, but it's par for the course for Blumhouse, which has made a cottage industry out of churning out low-cost-to-decent-return horror films (many of which ARE actually pretty fun to watch). I have a feeling this isn't going to stick around too long, but it's already looking good enough. It has earned $7.6 million overseas as well - all of which should help it along just fine.
4)
THE PHOTOGRAPH
Coming in a shade behind Fantasy Island, The Photograph landed in fourth with $12.27 million (approaching $13.5 million by Monday). It played much better with critics and earned a "B+" Cinemascore from audiences as well. Unsurprisingly, that audience was 56% female with 64% coming in over 25. The $15 million film is going to be a money-winner in the end, even if it falls flat after Valentine's weekend. We'll see if couples decide to give this a shot in the coming weeks or if it plays like a one-and-done deal, but $25 million seems to be a good target to shoot for, even with the upcoming competition.
5)
BAD BOYS FOR LIFE
The dynamic duo of Will Smith and Martin Lawrence back for another run continues to dominate the holdovers, dipping a light 6% in its fifth weekend out, adding $11.3 million (with $12.8 expected by Monday) for a new total of $182 million. It has officially topped Hobbs & Shaw ($174 million) and is also on track to be the first new January release to top $200 million and it currently sits in 10th place among R-rated releases as well as topping the likes of John Wick: Chapter 3 ($171 million), The Matrix ($171.4 million) and Air Force One ($173 million). No doubt this is the biggest hit of 2020 by a wide margin and that $200 million domestic it will hit eventually should stand up against some of the biggest films of the year (Black Widow, No Time to Die and Fast and Furious 9 among them). No doubt about it, the Bad Boys are back and bigger than ever and I'm sure the studio is hard at work trying to figure out how to capitalize on this resurgence.
Outside the top five: The other new wide release, Downhill, the remake of French film Force Majeure starring Will Ferrell, Julia Louis-Dreyfus and Miranda Otto among others, barely managed to crack the top 10 with a $4.6 million weekend debut ($5 million by Monday). It also didn't impress audiences with a "D" Cinemascore. I expect this to leave theaters as quickly and quietly as it debuted.
Both 1917 and Parasite won big following their post-Oscar wins. Parasite earned the biggest awards and jumped to over 2000 theaters, earning $5.5 million - it's biggest weekend yet - and a 251% increase over last weekend - all while available for home viewing. That represents one of the biggest post-Oscar jumps in the last 40 years, beaten by only Gladiator and The Last Emperor. With $44.12 million and counting, Parasite looks to top $50 million in the long run. 1917, while missing out on the biggest awards, still earned $8 million (down a light 12%) and an expected $9.3 million by Monday. That will give the film a $145.7 million total as it eyes the $150 million milestone it will pass sometime next week.
In milestone news, Jumanji: The Next Level took in $5.7 million ($7 million by Monday) to cross the $300 million mark with $307 million expected including the holiday.
Next week brings us The Call of the Wild and yet another horror offering in Brahms: The Boy II.
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