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Too Early for 2013 Oscar Predictions? I Think Not

View Chris Kavan's Profile

By Chris Kavan - 11/28/12 at 02:12 PM CT

Here we are - November is coming to a close with December (and some huge movies) right around the corner. Now, a disclaimer, I haven' see every movie this year - including many that could be up for awards (or that haven't been released, obviously) but I have seen enough that I am willing to make my initial predictions on what films (and which actors) we're likely going to be seeing come awards time. This is not exact science, and opinions are always welcome, but here are my early picks:

Best Picture:

Now, there can be up to ten best picture nominations in any given year - that doesn't mean there has to be ten, only that there can be ten. Are these necessarily the best films of 2012? Opinion may differ, but they have to be pretty close to the top of the list.

Sure Bets (and why):

LINCOLN: Steven Spielberg directing a historical epic that is near and dear to his heart? The movie has over-performed at the box office - drawing an older crowd (you know, that same older crowd who often vote on the Oscars). This is as sure a lock as any, and I put it as the front-runner to win the award.

ARGO: A more modern historical drama - Ben Affleck has managed to create a very tense, emotional journey even though the outcome of the particular event is already known. With a great cast, terrific dialogue, music and pacing - this is a fantastic movie that I guarantee will show up on this list.

THE SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK: Even if the box office doesn't meet the buzz, the fact is David O. Russell has created an anomaly - a romantic comedy/drama that I actually like. That fact alone is enough to make this lock for the award. Both Bradley Cooper and Jennifer Lawrence are amazing, as is the story, which I found much more engrossing than I would believe.

LES MISERABLES: I know this hasn't arrived yet, but I'm going out on a limb and am putting this on the fast-track to nomination. Hollywood loves a good musical (see also Chicago) and this has all the elements: dramatic story, wrenching performances, amazing music - this is all but assured a place on this list.

ZERO DARK THIRTY: Another forthcoming movie that's all but assured to show up on this list. Kathryn Bigelow already scored with The Hurt Locker, and Zero Dark Thirty appears to be following that same path with Jessica Chastain already earning accolades for her performance. It's the right combination of taking a story that is still fresh, finding the right actors for the role and making it compelling. Much like Argo - only I'm guessing a lot grittier.

The Best of the Rest:

Here are my picks for the movies that may or may not round out the other five on the best picture list:

MOONRISE KINGDOM: Now, while this may be my favorite movie of the year, and I hope with all my heart is makes the list, the fact is Wes Anderson is an acquired taste. While this movie hit all my buttons, it just won't work for everyone. That's why I consider this more of an outside chance than a sure thing.

THE MASTER: Paul Thomas Anderson's film has a much better chance at providing some best actor nominations - but best picture is not a lock. I didn't think the movie was bad, but it was just a little out there for general audiences. Yet this is exactly the kind of movie that Hollywood likes, so they may award it just for that reason.

FLIGHT: I have no question that Denzel Washington will be up for an acting award, but the overall film, much like The Master, may not quite have the popularity to make it to best picture. I haven't seen this yet - so my final opinion could easily be swayed one way or another - the film has drama and focus - but I will still put it here rather than a lock... for now.

LIFE OF PI: This will be up for probably just about every technical and visual award, but whether that translates to best picture is up for grabs. It has been getting a lot of great buzz, so that could help - out of all the movies on this list, I would say its closer to making the final cut than any other.

DJANGO UNCHAINED: I love Quentin Tarantino, but he's not often up for awards. This movie looks like a whole lot of fun, but it's also the type of movie that Hollywood tends to overlook for awards. I have high hopes for the film, but not as much hope for it being up for awards.

CLOUD ATLAS: The Wachowskis have crafted an epic time-bending, mind-twisting sci-fi experience. Yet it's also a movie that has greatly divided audiences, while also under-performing at the box office. I have a feeling that if the movie had done better business, I would feel better about its chances. As for now, it's an outside shot for sure.

I'm sure there are other pictures that could be up for consideration - but as for me, these are the films that have the best chance at showing up for the biggest awards next year. I won't be getting into directors or actors this time around - but rest assured - I'm guessing the majority are going to be culled from the above films. We'll have a clearer picture in another month, but for right now my opinion stands - what about yours?

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MikePA

Wrote on 12/01/12 at 09:38 AM CT

I'm really hoping Moonrise Kingdom gets some attention from the Academy, which I think it truly deserves. I still gotta see Flight and Silver Linings Playbook. And as for Django, I have a strong feeling it'll end up getting a best picture nomination. For me personally, all of Tarantino's movies thrn out being more than great.

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Chris

Wrote on 11/30/12 at 02:12 PM CT

I think The Hobbit has a better chance of taking home the visual effect-oriented awards - considering the competition this year, a Best Picture could be a long shot - however, I probably could have added it to the "Best of the Rest" list.

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Alex

Wrote on 11/30/12 at 09:27 AM CT

Nice write up. What about the Hobbit?

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