Oscar Nominations Are Out: Let the Predictions Fly!
By Chris Kavan - 01/25/11 at 11:05 AM CT
It looks like the Oscars are shaping up to be a battle of the staid, old-school British costume drama and the up-to-the-moment, hipster social media biography. Throw in a grizzled western and a mind-bending dream and hopefully Oscar won't disappoint.
The King's Speech has 12 nominations, followed by True Grit's 10 and The Social Network and Inception both picked up 8. Here is the list, with my humble prediction on who will walk away with the prize:
Best Supporting Actress:
Amy Adams (The Fighter)
Helena Bonham Carter (The King's Speech)
Melissa Leo (The Fighter)
Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)
Jacki Weaver (Animal Kingdom)
In what looks to be shaping up between to Fighter stars - Adams and Leo, I guess I'll lean towards Leo. But if they should somehow cancel each other out, Carter could slip in and beat them both.
Best Supporting Actor:
Christian Bale (The Fighter)
John Hawkes (Winter's Bone)
Jeremy Renner (The Town)
Mark Ruffalo (The Kids Are All Right)
Geoffrey Rush (The King's Speech)
I give the edge to Christian Bale here - Jeremy Renner in runner-up spot. As much as I hate to admit it, I really think Justin Timberlake should be here for his Social Network role as Sean Parker.
Annette Bening (The Kids Are All Right)
Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole)
Jennifer Lawrence (Winter's Bone)
Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine)
This one will come down to Natalie Portman and Annette Bening, and since Oscar seems to give the edge to dramas over comedy, I will too and say Portman is going to walk away with the statue.
Javier Bardem (Biutiful)
Jeff Bridges (True Grit)
Jesse Eisenberg (The Social Network)
Colin Firth (The King's Speech)
James Franco (127 Hours)
While I think Eisenberg deserves the win due to his spot-on Mark Zuckerberg act, somehow I think Colin Firth is going to walk away with the win. Still, nice to see Franco up there, as sawing your leg off is pretty impressive, even just for a film. Probably the biggest oversight is no Leonardo DiCaprio for Inception - science fiction just can't compete with heavy drama it seems.
Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan)
David O. Russell (The Fighter)
Tom Hooper (The King's Speech)
David Fincher (The Social Network)
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen (True Grit)
I would consider it an upset if anyone besides David Fincher won this award. While I have a healthy respect for the Coens and Aronofsky, and nothing against Hooper or Russell, this is one award I don't think should go to anyone else. It's also a grievous oversight that Christopher Nolan was left out for Inception - it wasn't just the special effects that were good in the film.
Best Writing - Adapted Screenplay
127 Hours Screenplay by Danny Boyle & Simon Beaufoy
The Social Network Screenplay by Aaron Sorkin
Toy Story 3 Screenplay by Michael Arndt; Story by John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton and Lee Unkrich
True Grit Written for the screen by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
Winter's Bone Adapted for the screen by Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini
This one will probably go to The Social Network, though True Grit will probably get a fair share of votes. I see no upset here, though.
Writing - Original Screenplay
Another Year Written by Mike Leigh
The Fighter Screenplay by Scott Silver and Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson;
Story by Keith Dorrington & Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson
Inception Written by Christopher Nolan
The Kids Are All Right Written by Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumberg
The King's Speech Screenplay by David Seidler
A lot of great films here, but The King's Speech has the edge over The Fighter, The Kids Are All Right and Inception. Unless something drastic happens, that's where the award is going.
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
And here we are - like I said, it's old-school traditional King's Speech against the new-school Social Network. I really hope The Social Network comes out the winner, but who knows which way the Academy is going to go. I may be wrong and neither will win, but I see that as a very outside chance.
I'm sure not all my predictions will come true - I'm lucky if I hit 50%, but I'll be sure to watch and either cheer the results or be bitterly unhappy. We'll see how things turn out.